Original Title: The Eurasian beaver range expansion reveals uneven future trends and possible conservation issues: an European assessment

Abstract
The Eurasian beaver is a keystone species and landscape-capable ecosystem engineer, which went close to extinction until the 19th century. Recently, thanks to legal protection and reintroduction programs, the species has recolonized much of its past range. However, in some countries this process did not occur. Objectives. Our objective is to model the potential distribution of the Eurasian beaver for current and future conditions, on a continental scale, at river and sub-basin level. We focus on the protected areas of Italy and Portugal for possible reintroductions. Methods. The study area is Europe, with a subset focusing on Italy and Portugal. We produce species distribution models for current and future conditions using climate change scenarios and predicting changes in river flow, including topographic and human disturbance variables. We then deepen suitability-related issues within Italian and Portuguese protected areas. Results. We find that the Eurasian beaver current suitability is comparable to its known distribution, although some potentially-suitable spots occur in Italy (where there are two occurrences), while the Iberian Peninsula and the Balkan countries host scattered suitable spots. Future scenarios predict a general lowering of suitability in Central and Northern Europe. Portuguese protected areas generally host unsuitable territories, while the Italian ones have reported a tangled scenario, depending on the biogeographical sector. Conclusions. Our results may support the large-scale management of the beaver, both for countries already hosting this species and those planning a reintroduction. The framework used may be applied to other species, and for different topics, from biogeography to conservation.

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